Apple Early Warning System (EWS) — Internal (Full)

Purpose: Backtested early-warning diagnostic for Apple markets across Market × Variety × Grade segments. Signals combine abnormal shocks, volatility breakouts, and structural drawdowns to detect emerging instability regimes.

Apple price dynamics differ across varieties due to grading standards, storage cycles, arrival concentration, and export demand shifts. This framework allows early identification of instability regimes within each Market–Variety–Grade segment.

EWS Summary Dashboard (Top Segments)

This table summarizes early-warning status by market–grade segment.
Alert Rate = % of weeks flagged historically (shock/vol/drawdown).

Market	Variety	Grade	Last Week	Last Price (₹)	Current Level	Alert Rate	Vol p90 (%)	DD p90	Plot
Aglar	Delicious	A	2024-12-30	56.25	Normal	57.58%	17.35	0.32	Open
Aglar	Kullu Delicious	A	2024-12-09	68.75	Normal	57.03%	20.00	0.24	Open
Azadpur	American	A	2025-01-27	64.38	Normal	53.51%	20.93	0.28	Open
Aglar	American	B	2024-11-25	31.25	Normal	53.25%	37.45	0.40	Open
Aglar	Kullu Delicious	B	2024-12-09	37.50	Normal	48.44%	17.86	0.36	Open
Aglar	American	A	2024-11-25	50.00	Normal	42.86%	20.69	0.34	Open
Nowpora	Delicious	B	2025-02-24	50.00	Normal	39.09%	21.91	0.39	Open
Azadpur	Delicious	A	2025-03-24	66.90	Normal	33.43%	19.05	0.31	Open
Narwal	Delicious	NoGrade	2025-02-24	110.00	Normal	22.30%	27.36	0.45	Open
Nowpora	American	B	2025-02-24	43.75	Watch	49.49%	23.12	0.30	Open
Azadpur	American	B	2025-01-27	44.38	Watch	49.12%	23.58	0.44	Open
Aglar	Delicious	B	2024-12-30	25.00	Watch	48.85%	18.45	0.36	Open
Nowpora	American	A	2025-02-24	56.25	Watch	48.82%	14.22	0.25	Open
Azadpur	Delicious	B	2025-03-24	47.80	Watch	48.22%	24.17	0.39	Open
Nowpora	Delicious	A	2025-02-24	60.94	Watch	44.30%	12.90	0.27	Open

All Market–Grade Driver Plots

Click any plot to open in a dedicated page (best performance).